Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,539 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.3% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Just a future today, and the odds come from Bovada due to the absence of a current/accurate Vegas consensus.
NL West
Listing the pick twice below isn’t a typo. We’re putting four units on this.
The Giants are available at good value today. I do recommend this pick. But in the context of our portfolio, we’re making it (and making it in this quantity) because currently, we’re 5.10 units above even, and this brings our worst-case in the regular season half of futures up to a 4.53-unit loss. We don’t want to dip below even because if we do, there’s no justification for recommending these plays, so we’re trying to avoid that. Now, college football this weekend presents some risk, as will the first few weeks of the MLB playoffs. But overall, we’re still in a solid place with our portfolio as a whole. We’re currently projecting a mean return of 9.56 units, and that’s including the division half, where the current mean return is a loss of 0.74 units.
Pick: San Francisco to win -165. Medium confidence.
Pick: San Francisco to win -165. Medium confidence.
