Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 531 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 3% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is pretty good. It would not be a great annual ROI for an investor. But it’s not too shabby on a daily basis.
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Just one pick today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Kansas City @ Minnesota
A lot of storylines surrounded Mike Montgomery’s departure from Chicago this summer for Kansas City. He was, of course, on the mound when the Cubs won their first World Series in 108 years. He was also not a favorite in the clubhouse, with teammates reportedly “down on him” following a trade request. And he was a risky bet for the Royals, who slotted them into their rotation with no trial run.
While his final legacy in Chicago is either nonexistent, anecdotal, or unsettled, his future looks bright. Because the bet the Royals made is paying off.
Montgomery has not been an ace. But he’s been respectable—better as a starter than he was early in the year as a reliever. His ERA/FIP slash before the trade was a dreadful 5.67/6.21, with all 27 of his innings coming from the ‘pen. Since, it’s been a solid 4.23/4.88, over eleven starts.
Montgomery likely never claimed he would become an all-star if allowed to start full-time. And to some degree, the repeated request was likely a business decision—starters earn a lot more than relievers. But it was also a reasonable stance: Over his career, his 4.34 FIP as a starter is good enough to make nearly any rotation. No, he didn’t make sense for the 2019 Cubs as a starting pitcher. But for a lot of teams—even some as good as the Yankees and Braves—he’d provide value. Now, he’s got his chance to do that, and he’s making the most of it.
Pick: Under 10 (-105). Low confidence.
