Editor’s Note: For almost two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of greatness (the Nationals winning the World Series last year, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,013 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 5% might not be a great annual return on overall investments, if you strategize well with timing, you can turn daily 5%’s into a whole lot more than 5% over the course of a year.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Data and predictions from FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Data from Baseball Savant and ESPN is also often used.
Just one future today, and nothing on individual games, with a whole lot of wind blowing in and the Yankees too banged up to be reliable. As usual, the future line comes from Bovada because no accurate Vegas Consensus is conveniently available.
Future
With yesterday’s obliteration of the Tigers, the Brewers pulled within four and a half in the NL Central, a potentially misleading number given they have three doubleheaders left and sit three back in the loss column. They’re not “right there,” but they’re close, and after today’s day off they get home series against the Cubs and Cardinals, both series in which they’re more likely than not to be the Vegas favorite.
Milwaukee’s a long way from winning a division title, but these are longer odds. The value’s there.
Pick: Milwaukee to win NL Central +1500. Low confidence.
