Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 608 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 12% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is very good. It’s also good when compared to conventional annual investments, and instead of taking a year to bring that return, it’s taking between three hours and seven months. In short, Joe’s got a good track record.
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Only one pick today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Team Rankings, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Georgia Southern @ Appalachian State
Triple option offenses have a reputation for mixing things up. They’re unconventional. They’re slow. They can, to be sure, be a problem.
It’s worth noting, though, that for Georgia Southern specifically, this isn’t as good a triple option as the one that carried the Eagles to ten wins last season. Last year’s offense averaged 5.8 yards per play, compared to just 4.4 for this year’s squad, and while that number should improve as Sun Belt play progresses (non-conference games against LSU and Minnesota were more difficult than upcoming contests with Troy and Louisiana-Monroe), that’s a tough hill to climb. Casting further doubt is SP+’s current evaluation of the Eagles offense: After pegging the unit the 78th-best in the country in 2018, the system has Georgia Southern listed at 113th this year.
This line has moved in Georgia Southern’s favor since opening. Some of that might be triple option fears. Some of that might be the thought that the possibility of rain in the first half will keep the teams close, or play to Georgia Southern’s strengths as a running team. For their part, however, Appalachian State runs on the twelfth-highest percentage of offensive plays in the FBS. Rain might help Georgia Southern’s narrative. It doesn’t figure to help them as much on the field as the line’s movement has implied.
Pick: Appalachian State -14.5 (-110). Low confidence.
