Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,735 published picks, not including pending futures. 2% doesn’t sound amazing, but relative to what else you get on the internet?
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Just a future today, for which the odds come from Bovada due to the absence of a current/accurate Vegas consensus.
World Series Special
It’s narrow, but it’s positive value, and it’s the only positive value we found today. Basically, Houston’s about properly valued to win the series, but they’re undervalued as of right now in Game 3 (because Ian Anderson isn’t as good as the market thinks he is), meaning they’re overvalued in scenarios in which they win Game 3.
Pick: Houston to win Game 3; Lose Series (+600). Low confidence.
