Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 3% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,778 published picks, not including pending futures. 3% doesn’t sound amazing, but relative to what else you get on the internet?
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. ESPN’s SP+ is heavily used in making college football game picks, and FPI is used in making conference championship futures picks.
Georgia State @ Louisiana-Lafayette
We’ve been staying away from over/under’s this year, but we’ve got a little cushion right now in the average ROI, so we’ll at least give this one a shot. SP+ has been tracking well on totals, and while both these teams are rush-heavy, their respective paces of play are close to the FBS median. There’s an argument to be made, too, that with both teams playing on short rest, the front sevens will be more affected than the offensive lines (given the disproportionate fatigue there). That isn’t the basis for a pick, but it’s a nice confirming piece.
Pick: Over 53.5 (-110). Low confidence.
