Editor’s Note: Joe Stunardi is our resident guy-who-knows-numbers. He’d say this isn’t all that great, but over a sample size of 200 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), his picks published here and back at All Things NIT have had an average return on investment of 2% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high), meaning he’s about as successful as a bettor who wins 53% of their straight bets.
As always, use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose following Joe’s picks. At the same time, though, you’re also responsible for any money you win.
Similarly, if you have a gambling problem, or even think you might have a gambling problem, get help. If you need help getting help, reach out to us at allthingsnit@gmail.com.
Just one pick today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written.
- Fangraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, and Spotrac are all great.
- The writeups for each pick aren’t justifications. The justification for each is that the numbers I’m using indicate its expected payout is positive by more than a standard deviation or two. The writeups are just words about the teams playing the games.
Boston @ Chicago (AL)
Lucas Giolito comes off the IL today to make the start for the Sox (the white ones, to be specific). Once a top prospect, he fell from grace over the course of last season, and even his encouraging 2.38 ERA over seven starts in 2017 was driven in large part by an absurdly low BABIP (.189, well beyond what you’d expect from even an extreme ground ball pitcher with a spectacular defense behind him, and 2017 Lucas Giolito fit neither of those descriptions).
Whether Giolito will figure it out, or whether the White Sox will figure Giolito out (I’ve seen theories that pitch selection is an issue), remains to be seen, but every now and then he posts a Game Score in the 70’s and gives everyone a little bit of hope.
Pick: Chicago (AL) to win +185. Low confidence.
