Editor’s Note: For about two and a half years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 1.0% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,421 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 1.0% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Cincinnati @ Colorado
Luis Castillo is having a bad time. He’s got a 6.42 ERA over more than thirty innings, he’s striking out a career low number of hitters, and he’s only made it through the sixth inning once this year.
But.
While the strikeout rate is concerning, and while his FIP is a would-be-career-worst-if-sustained 4.55, a 4.55 FIP isn’t that bad. For a normal pitcher. For Luis Castillo? Yeah, it’s bad. Again, the strikeouts aren’t happening and that is not good. But Castillo hasn’t been getting rocked (his xERA’s at 4.82) and his opponents’ .357 BABIP and 54.0% LOB rate are unlikely to hold up.
Again, Castillo is legitimately pitching badly by his own standards.
But not this badly.
Pick: Cincinnati to win -145. Low confidence.
