Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -2.5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 2,651 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 2.0% across 670 completed high and medium-confidence picks.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
NIT Championship: Xavier vs. Texas A&M
The market likes Texas A&M here more than the fundamentals do, so if you’re inclined to take a side on the spread, Xavier’s the numbers move. We’re staying away from the spread, because 1) it’s still fairly close to the fundamentals and 2) Xavier’s still a bit uncertain without Paul Scruggs.
What we like about the over here, in addition to it being the bet KenPom indicates we should take, is that Xavier’s offense has continued to hum even in the absence of Scruggs, and that the glaring question—how the Musketeer guards handle A&M’s pressure—is one where, if it goes wrong for Xavier, it’ll probably lead to a good share of fast-break points for their opponents, driving this total upwards.
Pick: Over 137.5 (-110). Low confidence.
