Editor’s Note: For about two and a half years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 1.1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,439 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 1.1% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Arizona @ Milwaukee
Jon Duplantier has thrown 41 and one third career major league innings. He did not pitch in the majors in 2020. So far this year, he’s made one start, and it didn’t go all that great (Tyler O’Neill smoked one off of him in the second, the wheels came off in the fifth). He’s not a big prospect for the Diamondbacks, and he’s moved around enough in their system that it’s hard to find a consistent sample in context off of which to form an impression.
Which leaves us with 2019. In 2019, mostly as a reliever, he was a 5.41 xERA guy and a 3.95 FIP guy. Those numbers, plus the numbers from his start and all his minor league numbers, have FanGraphs rather high on him, with their projections ranging from a 4.12 FIP to a 4.43 FIP.
I would imagine that those projections have about as wide of error bars as FanGraphs projections have. Still, they imply a better pitcher than the 5.00 FIP guy one would need to justify taking the Diamondbacks at these odds. We don’t know what we’ll get from Jon Duplantier. But at these odds, he’s worth a bet.
Pick: Arizona to win +150. Low confidence.
