Editor’s Note: For about two and a half years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.9% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,460 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.9% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Just a future today, and the odds for it come from Bovada due to the lack of an accurate/current Vegas consensus online.
World Series
The Red Sox are in first place in the AL East. They have the 9th-most pitcher fWAR in Major League Baseball, and that’s without Chris Sale, who can’t hurt if he does return for part of the second half, as is expected. Their offense was never as much of a concern, and it’s been solid enough so far to keep that impression intact.
Boston isn’t favored over the field to win their division. On paper, they’re only the fourth-best team in the AL, and the third-best of those more than 50% likely to make the playoffs (the Blue Jays have missed George Springer). But at 18-to-1, this is a good spot to be at, and we were saying similar things when we took them at 20-to-1 to win the East two and a half months ago.
Pick: Boston to win +1800. Low confidence.
