Editor’s Note: For about two and a half years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,446 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.7% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
The line for this one is coming from Bovada because it’s rather specific and therefore doesn’t show up on the Vegas consensus.
New York (AL) @ Minnesota
Here’s the deal: The Twins look like the best play available tonight, but Michael King and J.A. Happ’s respective performances relative to their expectations are just good/bad enough that we don’t feel very confident in them. At the same time, we’ve been cold lately, and our average ROI is inching downwards, which we never like to see. So rather than take a bet we think is good value but high-downside, we’re going to take a bet that appears to present good value but low upside, reducing our chances of losing it significantly while sacrificing payout. Might we lose? Yes. But it’s unlikely, and if we lose this one, we would’ve lost on the moneyline anyway (and yes, my personal understanding of the run differential curve leads me to still think this is good value, but I may be using a different curve than others).
Pick: Minnesota +4.5 (-380). Low confidence.
