Editor’s Note: For about two and a half years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,469 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.7% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Toronto @ Baltimore
There’s a good chance this game doesn’t get played, with Baltimore forecasted to get pummeled by rain. If it does get in, though, the rain should help the Orioles, who have a stronger top end of the bullpen than the Blue Jays do. If it doesn’t, this is still a good play: The Orioles grade out well probability-wise against these odds. I mention the rain not as the sole reason to make this play, but to point out it’s more of a green flag than a red flag in this instance, as long as you don’t mind a probable push.
Pick: Baltimore to win +185. Low confidence.
