Editor’s Note: For about two and a half years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,475 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.5% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Just a future today, and due to the absence of a current/accurate Vegas consensus, the line comes from Bovada.
NLCS
The way the market’s set up right now, there’s almost value on the Dodgers, but not quite. In the meantime, it’s looking decently likely that once buying/selling decisions are made, it’s going to be the Mets and Brewers across the bracket from the NL West triad. The Brewers have pitching, but the Mets have it too, and this reads out as good value from FanGraphs (which has the Mets 21.4% likely to win the pennant) even without taking into account that the Mets will be one of the more active teams at the trade deadline if this past offseason was any indication.
Pick: New York (NL) to win +450. Low confidence.
