Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 865 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 7% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is pretty good. More broadly, it’s adequate when compared to conventional annual investments, and instead of taking a year to bring that return, it’s taking between three hours and seven months. In short, Joe’s got a good track record.
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One pick for tonight.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from KenPom, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Ohio State @ Iowa
Iowa hasn’t lost at home since November. They sit six spots ahead of Ohio State in the Big Ten standings. CJ Fredrick might be returning tonight from an ankle sprain.
It makes a lot of sense why Iowa’s favored in this. Over conference play, they’ve had the better results between the two, and they have a demonstrated strong home-court advantage that stretches back years.
But.
Viewing Ohio State’s results in a random order portrays a team that’s played respectably in a difficult conference. While the calamative narrative persists from the stretch in which they lost six of seven, they’ve now won five of six. What’s more, all of their losses on the season have come to teams markedly better than Iowa defensively, and in games in which, with few exceptions, the Buckeye offense has been the main problem. Yes, Iowa’s great offensively, and yes, Ohio State struggles to defend the three-point line, but the Buckeyes are staunch inside, and at the other end of the court, Kaleb Wesson & Co. should have a field day scoring against an Iowa defense that’s better than only those of Northwestern and Nebraska within the Big Ten.
CJ Fredrick’s ankle should at the very least hamper him. Ohio State’s only one and a half games back of the Hawkeyes. And just because it’s difficult to win at Iowa doesn’t mean it can’t be done.
Pick: Ohio State +2.5 (-110). Low confidence.
