Editor’s Note: For a little more than three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.4% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 2,009 published picks, not including bets that remain pending, like futures. 0.4% doesn’t sound amazing, but we’re publishing it, aren’t we?
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks.
Western Illinois @ South Dakota State
Western Illinois has the shortest average defensive length of possession in the country, South Dakota State likes to run, neither team is strong on the offensive glass, both are strong on the defensive glass, and the matchups are such that there shouldn’t be many turnovers.
The takeaway is that there should be a good number of possessions tonight, but while the immediate reaction to that is to bet the over, the Jacks may be on a bit of a defensively-focused kick, making the spread a better option. Higher possession counts favor favorites on the spread, anyway.
Pick: South Dakota State -13 (-110). Low confidence.
