Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 733 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 11% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is very good. It’s also good when compared to conventional annual investments, and instead of taking a year to bring that return, it’s taking between three hours and seven months. In short, Joe’s got a good track record.
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One pick for tonight.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from KenPom, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Team Rankings, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Northern Iowa @ Grand Canyon
By all appearances, it’s been a disappointing year for Grand Canyon. By all measurements, it’s been a frustrating one. The Antelopes, expected to compete with New Mexico State for the WAC title, are instead 4-7, and below the national median on KenPom.
All, though, is not lost.
Oscar Frayer and Jaylen Fisher should be eligible soon. The best information available indicates Gabe McGlothan still might see the floor this year. Beyond New Mexico State, the WAC is wide open: even after this brutal start, the Lopes are rated the third-best team in the conference, with Cal Baptist—who’s transitioning from D-II basketball and isn’t yet postseason-eligible—in between the two. No conference games have been played, and New Mexico State, too, has struggled out of the gate, limping to a 6-5 record that’s more likely than not to drop to 6-6 this weekend.
On Sunday, Grand Canyon put together its best performance of the young season, hanging with Liberty for more than thirty minutes. Don’t be surprised if they hang around for all forty tonight.
Pick: Grand Canyon +6 (-110). Low confidence.
