Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 566 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 3% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is pretty good. It would not be a great annual ROI for an investor. But it’s not too shabby on a daily basis.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose following Joe’s picks. At the same time, though, you’re also responsible for any money you win.
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One pick today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Detroit @ Chicago (AL)
After a rough patch following his return from the injured list, Spencer Turnbull may have righted the ship. Over his last three starts, he’s got a 3.94 ERA and a 1.97 FIP, with a more impressive 21-to-3 strikeout-to-walk count.
Turnbull may have overachieved this season—a relative non-prospect, the 27-year-old right-hander was not expected to be the Tigers’ second-best player by fWAR. But here he is, and whether he can repeat the performance going forward is a big question for the Tigers as they figure out their rebuild. It’s uncertain if he can, but it’s better to at least be asking the question than to have no reason to consider it in the first place.
Pick: Under 9.5 (-105). Low confidence.
