Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been neutral, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,554 published picks, not including pending futures. Neutral isn’t what we want, but it’s not negative, so we persist, and honestly, you could do much worse with picks published online.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Just a future today, and the odds come from Bovada due to the absence of a current/accurate Vegas consensus.
ALCS
If you’re the White Sox, you don’t want Dylan Cease and Carlos Rodón each experiencing arm trouble, but the market’s taking concern over the third and fourth starters as something much bigger than it is, which is concern over the third and fourth starters. The AL is deceptively open (both leagues are, really, with the Giants moving closer to putting the Dodgers away in the West), making it a year where teams above the baseline odds (1-in-8 for each Division Series appearer to win the World Series, 1-in-4 to win the LCS) deserve long looks. The White Sox are the best option today in terms of value and where it fits within our portfolio.
Pick: Chicago to win +350. Low confidence.
