Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 3,440 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.7% across 790 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). Our ETA to get the overall number back profitable is currently November 5th, the date of a potential World Series Game 7.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL picks.
NASCAR Cup Series at Texas – Playoff Race
These are tough, short odds, but at a track like Texas, which is intermediate but hasn’t raced like other intermediates with this new car, I’m not sure we can do better than Elliott. He’s been the best driver all season, his car ran well in qualifying, and he’s won at better than a 1-in-9 clip so far this year, so why should those odds be any lower today, in a rather non-random race? We’ll take the points leader and hold our breath.
Pick: Chase Elliott to win +800. Low confidence.
