Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 527 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 3% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is pretty good. It would not be a great annual ROI for an investor. But it’s not too shabby on a daily basis.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose following Joe’s picks. At the same time, though, you’re also responsible for any money you win.
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One pick today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Miami @ San Francisco
Johnny Cueto returned to an MLB mound Tuesday, making his first start since July 2018 after recovering following Tommy John surgery. It went well. Cueto struck out four, walked one, and allowed one hit over five scoreless innings against the Pirates. His fastball averaged 91.3 mph, faster than the 89.8 it sat at in 2018. His changeup wasn’t dropping as much as it has in the past, but was still effective, finishing off two of the strikeouts.
Today, he takes the mound again, this time against the visiting Marlins. It’s a nice team to get back into shape against—Miami has the worst wRC+ in baseball, at 77. And it’s a nice park in which to do it—Oracle Park’s 0.799 2019 park factor is the lowest in the MLB. If one doesn’t look too closely, it might feel like 2016 today in San Francisco.
Pick: San Francisco to win (-160). Low confidence.
