Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -4.0% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,008 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.9% across 1,336 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). Should the Phillies win the World Series, we’ll be profitable again when that happens. Should the Astros win, we’ll have to wait.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL picks.
Just NASCAR today.
NASCAR Cup Series at Phoenix
Of the Championship Four, the traditional view would be to trust Joey Logano and Chase Elliott as racers, and to trust Elliott and Christopher Bell to have winner-worthy cars.
We’re comfortable running with that view today.
Pick: Chase Elliott to win +310. Low confidence.
