Editor’s Note: For about two and a half years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 1.0% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,432 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 1.0% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Detroit @ Kansas City
Kris Bubic’s sample size is small (not yet 20 innings), but in his second big-league season after graduating the Royals’ farm system as one of their top prospects (having not turned 23 and having never pitched above A-ball), he’s got a 0.96 ERA, a 2.89 xERA, and a 3.10 FIP. With even something like a 4.40 in those metrics, this becomes a positive-value bet.
And he’s facing the Tigers today.
Pick: Kansas City to win -148. Low confidence.
