Editor’s Note: For about two and a half years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 1.0% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,427 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 1.0% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Cleveland @ Seattle
Is Cleveland more than two-in-three likely to beat Seattle? Just barely is the thought. Shane Bieber threw a ton of pitches on Tuesday, but the bullpen’s fresh and Terry Francona’s team could use a win, having lost two of the first three in this series. One would imagine the bullpen’s best will be ready and available. It isn’t great value, but it’s the best we can find on today’s board (and it’s at least somewhat valuable).
Pick: Cleveland to win -200. Low confidence.
