Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.8% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,029 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Just the one market today, with MLB futures taking the weekend off.
Single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 46–33–1, we’re up 6.19 units, we’re up 8% (the average line on our winners has been –117). April was great, May was bad, June has been good so far.
Tampa Bay @ San Diego
There are three red flags to look at here:
The first is Joe Musgrove’s elbow bursitis, a recently reported affliction. This isn’t a new affliction. It’s merely newly reported. With Musgrove close to expectations on the aggregate over the season so far (his xERA is sensational), we are unconcerned.
The second is that the Rays are very good and the Padres have underperformed their talent on the season. Something worth remembering here is that the Rays began the year on a thirteen-game win streak. This is part of their overall sample, but it also makes it easy to measure their performance since: They’re 38–23 since, still a 101-win pace but not entirely otherworldly. This is a selective sample, but what we’re really trying to find here is whether FanGraphs is undervaluing the Rays. If they are, we don’t see reason to believe they’re undervaluing them by enough to justify not taking them. As for the Padres? They’re on a little 14–10 run. Again, selective sample, but the point is that over a meaningful amount of recent time, they haven’t been a disaster. In short: We don’t think there’s anything weird and mental going on, the kind of thing that makes the A’s or Royals worse on the field than they are on paper.
The third is that Josh Hader pitched last night and threw more than 15 pitches, getting into that territory where he might not be as fresh today, especially with less than a 24-hour turnaround. We care a lot about bullpen freshness when we make these picks, but we aren’t terribly worried about Hader. He’s been good in all of his outings this year on one day of rest, and he’s only pitched twice over the last week. We acknowledge that specific risk—that he’s unavailable or that he’s available but not as good as his normal self—but we think it’s small enough to leave this as the play to make today.
Pick: San Diego to win –148. Low confidence. (Chirinos and Musgrove must start.)
