Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.8% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,050 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Just the one market today, with MLB futures off for the weekend.
Single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 55–44–2, we’re up 5.99 units, we’re up 6% (the average line on our winners has been –110). April was great, May was bad, June was good. Win or lose today, we’ll be going into the All-Star Break profitable so far on the month of July.
Cincinnati @ Milwaukee
The ascent of the Reds coupled with the Brewers’ inability to get over various humps these last few years seems to have given a feeling that the Brewers are struggling. This isn’t true. The Brewers are 48–42 and at the very worst will enter the break tonight two games out in the Wild Card race. I say this to say: It’s scary to bet against the Reds right now, but this isn’t like taking the Royals or the A’s. The Reds used a ton of bullpen yesterday to get that win, and the Brewers managed to self-preserve a bit. Wade Miley isn’t great, but he’s a pro, and Ben Lively shouldn’t be trusted. We’ll take the Crew to get the NL Central gap back to one game. We’re 5–1 betting on the Brewers this year.
Pick: Milwaukee to win –127. Low confidence. (Lively and Miley must start.)
