Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,067 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Just the moneyline today. Futures are off for the weekend.
Single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 65–49–4, we’re up 12.09 units, we’re up 10% (the average line on our winners has been –106). April was great, May was bad, June was good, July’s been great. Two days left of it.
Texas @ San Diego
We don’t like betting on the Rangers to win on the road this year, and Cody Bradford doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence, but at this long of odds, we cherish the opportunity to bet against Blake Snell. Snell’s having a great season yet again, and we don’t think poorly of him, but he’s overvalued by the market. Both his peripherals (3.89 xERA, 3.70 FIP) and his recent results (12 BB, 8 K over 11 IP his last two starts) point towards regression from his MLB-leading 2.61 ERA. Facing a sweep, we like the Rangers’ bats to start some of that regression in earnest.
Pick: Texas to win +171. Low confidence. (Bradford and Snell must start.)
