Editor’s Note: For almost two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of greatness (the Nationals winning the World Series last year, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the second two months last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 922 published picks, not including futures. And while 6% might not be a great annual return on overall investments, if you strategize well with timing, you can turn daily 6%’s into a whole lot more than 6% over the course of a year.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Data and predictions from FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Data from Baseball Savant and ESPN is also often used.
Miami @ Philadelphia
You’d think a lineup with Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto, Rhys Hoskins, and Didi Gregorius would project better than this one does, especially when you look further down the WAR list and see Jean Segura and Andrew McCutchen in the mix. But while Harper, Realmuto, and Hoskins are strong, the rest of these names are merely solid in the context of their position, and beyond them, it drops off fast.
There’s been talk of the Phillies breaking out for a few years now. It’s yet to materialize. This isn’t for lack of trying: The farm system’s produced. The front office has been aggressive in free agency. Trades have been made. But the winning hasn’t come yet, and even with this season’s expanded playoffs, the Phils are still just about a 50/50 shot to make the field.
Building a winning baseball franchise is difficult. It takes time and some luck. The Phillies might get there before rebuilding season comes to them again. But unless they surprise over these next 58 games or get hot in October, Philadelphia will be stuck waiting on the offseason to bring them to contention—a feeling growing all-too familiar.
Pick: Miami to win +150. Low confidence.
