Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.8% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,060 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Just the moneyline today, with futures off for the weekend.
Single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 60–47–4, we’re up 8.41 units, we’re up 8% (the average line on our winners has been –108). April was great, May was bad, June was good. July’s been good so far, but we’re not in the clear yet.
San Diego @ Detroit
We don’t like betting against Joe Musgrove, but the board’s thin today and one of Alex Faedo’s last two starts was a lot better than the runs scored indicated. There’s also the aspect of this where the Padres are starting this game at 9:05 AM on their body clocks. We’ll take a shot. Sundays are weird.
Pick: Detroit to win +185. Low confidence. (Musgrove and Faedo must start.)
