Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.8% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,053 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Just a moneyline today, with futures off for the weekend.
Single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 56–45–3, we’re up 5.78 units, we’re up 6% (the average line on our winners has been –110). April was great, May was bad, June was good. July’s been about even so far.
Houston @ Anaheim
Cristian Javier hasn’t made it out of the fifth inning in any of his last three starts, and while the last of those was nearly two weeks ago, there’s no guarantee the layoff has helped him reset. Tyler Anderson hasn’t been good this year, but his FIP and xERA are better than both his ERA and expectations, narrow though the latter gap may be. The big one here is that after last night, the bullpen usage balance breaks in Anaheim’s favor, with Houston presumably missing their top four relief arms after using all of them two nights in a row. The Angels are banged up, but the guys they have on the field are enough to make this just about a tossup, giving us value here.
Pick: Anaheim to win +114. Low confidence. (Javier and Anderson must start.)
