Editor’s Note: For a little more than three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,954 published picks, not including bets that remain pending, like futures. 0.7% doesn’t sound amazing, but relative to what else you get on the internet?
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks. ESPN’s SP+ is heavily used in making college football picks of all kinds, and FPI is used in making conference championship futures picks.
Michigan State @ Northwestern
Michigan State’s definitely in danger here, playing a tournament-quality team on the road, but it isn’t an unexpected threat, the Spartans have played (and played well) within the last week, and there isn’t really a trap element, with the next scheduled game at home against Nebraska. Chase Audige’s return helps Northwestern, and it’s possible to make too much of Marcus Bingham and Max Christie returning for MSU, but Sparty should take care of business today in Evanston.
Pick: Michigan State -3 (-110). Low confidence.
