Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 820 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 9% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is very good. It’s also good when compared to conventional annual investments, and instead of taking a year to bring that return, it’s taking between three hours and seven months. In short, Joe’s got a good track record.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose following Joe’s picks. At the same time, though, you’re also responsible for any money you win.
Similarly, if you have a gambling problem, or even think you might have a gambling problem, get help. If you need help getting help, reach out to us via the contact information available on our about page.
One pick for today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from KenPom, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Maryland @ Indiana
Maybe it’s Maryland’s 1-4 record on the road.
Maybe it’s the challenges Trayce Jackson-Davis and Joey Brunk pose to Jalen Smith and the rest of the Terps’ front line.
Maybe it’s the woeful first half of Maryland’s trip to Northwestern on Tuesday.
Whatever the reason, this line is skewed unreasonably towards the Hoosiers. Yes, the game isn’t far from a tossup, but two points is significant, especially compared to the rest of today’s lines (Wake Forest and Oregon each look promising, but some injury uncertainty makes those riskier plays). Maryland’s road “struggles” consist of losing to Penn State (21st in KenPom) by seven, Seton Hall (10th) by four, Iowa (14th) by 18, and Wisconsin (34th) by two before coming back to not only win, but cover against Northwestern this week. No, it’s not an inspiring record, but it’s a small one, and overall, the Terrapins are a very good basketball team with very good big men, and it’s taken teams better than Indiana to beat them.
Yes, it’s looking like a great game, and the battle down low is one of the best college basketball can offer this year. Still, Maryland should be a slight favorite here. Take them.
Pick: Maryland +2 (-110). Low confidence.
