Editor’s Note: For more than two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ NLCS comeback, the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,268 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.5% might not be enormous, it’s positive over a big sample size. For what it’s worth.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. Ken Pomeroy’s KenPom is heavily used in making College Basketball picks.
America East Tournament: Albany @ Hartford
I might be missing something, but this line is weird. Hartford’s the better team, and they’re playing at home.
Possible influences could be that Hartford won’t actually have much home court advantage, that Hartford will be more affected by the back-to-back games than Albany because they have a smaller rotation, and that ratings systems are underestimating Albany because they were missing a few guys four and five games ago.
But none of those seem like a big enough red flag, to me, anyway. Hartford had terrible home court advantage numbers to begin with. Hartford’s rotation isn’t that much smaller than Albany’s, and they weren’t exactly taxed yesterday by Binghamton. And at least in KenPom, Albany entered that shorthanded stretch ranked 223rd and came out ranked 224th, suggesting the trendline didn’t really move during that episode.
It’s the A-East, so it’s possible I’m missing something out of my own ignorance. But it’s also possible the market is reading into something that isn’t actually a big deal, or maybe isn’t even there.
Pick: Hartford +1 (-110). Low confidence.
