Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 762 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 11% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is very good. It’s also good when compared to conventional annual investments, and instead of taking a year to bring that return, it’s taking between three hours and seven months. In short, Joe’s got a good track record.
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One pick today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from KenPom, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Team Rankings, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Western Illinois @ South Dakota
It’s undeniable that Triston Simpson’s absence has hurt South Dakota. They’ve plummeted through ratings systems, the most significant indignities coming against Northern Arizona in Flagstaff and against UMKC at home last Sunday. Simpson played more than 90% of last year’s possible minutes for the Coyotes, and nearly 96% of those in conference play. An efficient scorer and skilled distributor, he was a big part of their offense. He is missed.
Still, since Simpson went out with a knee injury, it hasn’t been South Dakota’s offense that’s slipped. Their projected adjusted efficiency has hardly budged in KenPom. Yes, Simpson was a potent asset, but so are Tyler Hagedorn, Tyler Peterson, and Cody Kelley, and even the supporting cast beyond them can put the ball in the hoop.
The problem for South Dakota is defense. With that a big issue for Western Illinois as well, this is probably the best play on the board today, as far as college basketball goes.
Pick: Over 148.5 (-110). Low confidence.
