Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 707 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 12% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is very good. It’s also good when compared to conventional annual investments, and instead of taking a year to bring that return, it’s taking between three hours and seven months. In short, Joe’s got a good track record.
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Only one pick today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from KenPom, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Team Rankings, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
San Jose State @ UCLA
Any hopes of a UCLA renaissance in Mick Cronin’s first year were put on hold the Thursday before Thanksgiving, when the Bruins fell at home to visiting Hofstra, then returned to storage after BYU ran away with the opener in Maui.
At this point, finishing in the top eight in the Pac-12 looks like a longshot for Cronin’s squad. They’ve been torched on three’s, handcuffed offensively, and made to look every bit the inexperienced team they are. They do show some promise when it comes to generating second chances, limiting opponents’ second chances, and getting themselves to the free throw line, but it’s hard to see them blowing anyone out this year, especially at their preferred slow tempo. San Jose State might be one of the worst 25 teams in Division I basketball. They still project to cover against UCLA.
Pick: San Jose State +21 (-110). Low confidence.
