Editor’s Note: For three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 1.4% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,913 published picks, not including bets that remain pending, like futures. 1.4% doesn’t sound amazing, but relative to what else you get on the internet?
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks. ESPN’s SP+ is heavily used in making college football picks of all kinds, and FPI is used in making conference championship futures picks.
Just college basketball today.
SMU @ New Mexico
New Mexico’s a hard place to play, partially because of the crowd and partially because of elevation. That’s baked in to these lines, though, making it seem like the real difference here comes from some speculation by the market that SMU, who hasn’t played for eleven days, might be rusty. Could they be? Sure. But New Mexico’s coming off a seven-day break of their own (both due to finals, I assume—I don’t think either has had anything to do with covid), and prior to finals, SMU was playing its best ball of the season. Look for the AAC bubble sleeper to grab its first road win of the season as the end of nonconference approaches.
Pick: SMU -4 (-110). Medium confidence.
