Editor’s Note: For three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 1.3% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,896 published picks, not including bets that remain pending, like futures. 1.3% doesn’t sound amazing, but relative to what else you get on the internet?
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks. ESPN’s SP+ is heavily used in making college football picks of all kinds, and FPI is used in making conference championship futures picks.
Virginia Tech @ Dayton
Virginia Tech put up 93 on Wednesday, and the market seems to have taken notice. What the market seems to be undervaluing, or so is our bet, is that Virginia Tech put up 93 points against Cornell, the fastest-paced team in the country by some metrics and one of the worst defenses the Hokies will face all year. Virginia Tech likes a slow pace. Dayton likes a slow pace. This is going to be a Sunday afternoon grind, and Dayton’s one-dimensional offense has its work cut out to break 60.
Pick: Under 128.5 (-110). Medium confidence.
