Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,074 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Just the moneyline today. Futures are off for the weekend.
Single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 71–50–4, we’re up 16.41 units, we’re up 13% (the average line on our winners has been –107). April was great, May was bad, June was good, July was great. We’ve yet to lose in August.
Washington @ Cincinnati
Lyon Richardson is unproven in the minors and shy of being a top-100 prospect. He’s made only one start at AAA. He does, though, only pitch about three innings per start this year, and has done so fairly consistently at multiple minor league levels. So, this is more about the Reds’ bullpen, and as the franchise tries to avoid its sixth straight loss, they shouldn’t be expected to hold anything back.
Pick: Cincinnati to win –154. Low confidence. (Irvin and Richardson must start.)
