Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,093 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Our MLB futures are off for the weekend, as usual, but we do have a baseball moneyline today.
Single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 85–57–4, we’re up 21.40 units, we’re up 15% (the average line on our winners has been –108). We’re looking for our tenth straight win today.
Houston @ Detroit
If you really loved Justin Verlander, or if you hated him but you liked John Steinbeck, or if you were cool with each but liked neither more than the other, you could compare Verlander’s start today at Comerica Park to Steinbeck climbing Fremont Peak in Travels with Charley. Personally, I’m pretty neutral on Verlander and pretty high on Steinbeck, so I won’t make the comparison, especially with Verlander’s contract having another year left.
Verlander’s pitching well these days, and Alex Faedo has flashed some encouraging things but isn’t Justin Verlander. The Astros haven’t been playing their best, but they’ve played fine lately on the aggregate, and while the Tigers remain admirably competitive, they aren’t exactly tearing up the American League. We don’t like a lot today, but this very narrowly meets our parameters, and we’ll take that, especially with the relatively high probability of getting a win.
Pick: Houston to win –162. Low confidence. (Verlander and Faedo must start.)
