Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,088 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Just the moneyline today, with futures off for the weekend (we did not end up checking on them today). Here’s the context.
Single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 78–57–4, we’re up 16.88 units, we’re up 12% (the average line on our winners has been –106). April was great, May was bad, June was good, July was great. August is going well so far, as we look to sweep the three-game weekend.
Chicago (AL) @ Colorado
I can’t believe we’re betting on the White Sox, but we’re betting on the White Sox. Dylan Cease continues to have a great year, with even his seven-walk outing two starts ago one which grades out respectably by FIP. He had the dud in Texas, but a lot of pitchers have had duds in Texas this season. Besides that, you have to go back to May to find a day on which he had a single-game FIP at or above 5.00. With Chris Flexen having a terrible time (he’s allowing a home run more often than once every three and a half innings), we think the White Sox get it done here. Especially given the Rockies are the worst offensive team in the league (by wRC+, not runs scored, they do still play at Coors Field).
Pick: Chicago (AL) to win –133. Low confidence. (Cease and Flexen must start.)
