Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 3,388 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). Our ETA for having the overall number back profitable is currently November 7th, the likeliest date of a World Series Game 7 and the eve of both college basketball season and Election Day.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer picks.
Federated Auto Parts 400 (NASCAR Cup Series at Richmond)
The focus is on Toyotas today, and that’s fair. In addition to Martin Truex Jr. sitting outside the playoff cut line, needing a victory to climb back in, Toyotas have been best at these short tracks.
The problem with the focus being on Toyotas today is that Toyotas are expensive. Is Truex more than 1-in-6 likely to win? It’s hard to believe that. Is Denny Hamlin more likely than 1-in-8? Maybe, but even that feels like a stretch.
We’re going with William Byron today, who nearly won the spring race at Richmond, qualified well yesterday, and was competent at New Hampshire a few weeks ago even if he only finished 11th. The value seems to be there. Value’s what we’re after.
Pick: William Byron to win +1400. Low confidence.
