Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 428 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 5% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is pretty good. It would be a decent annual ROI for an investor. But instead it’s coming, on average, on each of these picks.
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Only one pick today (sometimes, you just can’t give in and take a pick for the sake of taking it).
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, and ESPN is often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. You are not required to read these. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Atlanta @ Miami
Lost amid larger storylines (Cody Bellinger, Christian Yelich, the Mets) is the fact that Ronald Acuña Jr. is, at the age of 21, having another spectacular year.
The Braves outfielder already has 4.6 fWAR to date, seventh in the National League (eighth if you include Zack Greinke) and 14th overall. He’s slashing .296/.377/532 with a wRC+ of 134. All on the heels of last year’s 143 wRC+ and 3.7 fWAR. He hits the ball hard. He’s fast. He’s exciting to watch. And again, he’s only 21.
With so much focus on the debuts of top prospects these days, it feels like Acuña is well-established. And in many ways, he is. Which makes it easy to forget that in terms of value to a franchise, Acuña and his $13M/year contract (on average) that effectively runs through 2028 (there are team options) is the best asset in baseball right now.
Pick: Over 9 (-105). Low confidence.
