Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,816 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
No futures today, as we don’t do those for baseball on the weekends. On single game MLB bets this year, the sample is small, but things are going well. We’re 7–3, we’re up 3.40 units, we’re up 34%. That 34% number is unlikely to be sustained, but it’s been a nice week and a half.
Seattle @ Cleveland
Seattle’s bullpen isn’t as emptied as a lot of teams’ are once they grab a 2–0 series lead, but relative to Cleveland’s, it’s the more spent of the two. George Kirby is definitely better than Zach Plesac, but the gap isn’t big enough to give the Mariners this much of an edge on the road, in the cold, in what’s an early start for West Coast baseball body clocks. We’ll go with the Guardians.
Pick: Cleveland to win +115. Low confidence. (Kirby and Plesac must start.)
