Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,808 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. KenPom is used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Just a baseball play today.
Minnesota @ Kansas City
We gathered some evidence last year that the market doesn’t accurately price teams on Sundays, for a reason we’re nervous to write for fear of giving something away. We like the Royals for that reason. Also, we like that Brad Keller’s FIP’s been solid the last two years even as his ERA has struggled. That’s a good sign.
Pick: Kansas City +132. Low confidence.
