Editor’s Note: For more than two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,361 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 2% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
New York (NL) @ Colorado
Marcus Stroman isn’t going to keep his 0.73 ERA forever. But he’s a great pitcher, and his sub-4.00 FIP is right around expectations. Questions about how many innings he should throw after a year off are legitimate, but we aren’t to the point where they should be impactful, and in general, it’s probably safe to assume they aren’t impactful until they are, if that makes sense. Basically, if Stroman has a bad start in June? Go ahead and ask how tired he is. But right now, you can roll with him with a normal amount of confidence.
Pick: New York (NL) to win -175. Low confidence.
