Editor’s Note: For about two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ NLCS comeback, the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,191 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.2% might not be great, it’s positive over a big sample size. And you can do something with positive.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Bill Connelly’s SP+ is heavily used in making College Football picks.
Houston @ Cincinnati
There’s something of a trap-game narrative to be had here. Cincinnati’s coming off a 39-point annihilation of Memphis, normally one of the better teams in the AAC. They’re ranked sixth in the polls. The broader college football narrative seems to know enough about them to know they have a good defense.
But saying Cincinnati has a good defense is probably an understatement. By SP+, only Georgia, Wisconsin, Northwestern, and Ohio State have better defenses than that of Cincinnati. Yes, that would mean Cincinnati’s defense is better than Clemson’s. Yes, Cincinnati’s defense is fairly cleanly better than Alabama’s, at least at this point.
What does that mean for Houston? In all likelihood, a struggle. Yes, Dana Holgorsen doesn’t run the most conventional offense, but top-five defenses are top-five defenses, and Cincinnati’s offense shouldn’t have too much trouble with the Cougar defense. Look for the Bearcats to make their top-five case on a weekend in which either Notre Dame or Clemson will tally their first loss.
Pick: Cincinnati -13 (-110). Low confidence.
