Editor’s Note: For about two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ NLCS comeback, the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,198 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.2% might not be great, it’s positive over a big sample size. And you can do something with positive.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Bill Connelly’s SP+ is heavily used in making College Football picks.
Wisconsin @ Northwestern
Liberty @ NC State
First, let’s talk SP+. The system isn’t high on Liberty, pegging the Flames as the 39th-best team in the country. That’s still a lot better than 70th-best NC State, though, which is why SP+ gives Liberty a 60% chance of winning today, even in Raleigh. Liberty’s offense outshines its defense, and while they might not have fully earned their undefeated status (that win over Virginia Tech took some luck), they’ve earned more respect than NC State, whose crowning achievement, to date, is losing to an uninspiring Miami team at home. On the Wisconsin/Northwestern side of things, SP+ loves Northwestern’s defense as much as the experts (many of whom, it should be noted, attended Northwestern). It says the unit’s the fifth-best in the country, trailing only Georgia (1st), Iowa (3rd), San Diego State (4th), and…Wisconsin (2nd). Northwestern’s strength doesn’t even match up with that of Wisconsin’s, and Wisconsin has an offense to go with it. “But,” you might say, “Wisconsin in Evanston…”
So second, let’s talk narratives. Yes, Wisconsin traditionally struggles in Evanston. But while there may be some truth to that being a legitimate pattern, as opposed to random happenstance (possible explanations would be that Wisconsin hasn’t figured out the right travel schedule, Wisconsin hasn’t figured out the right feeding situation, Northwestern matches up well with Wisconsin stylistically…), random happenstance is still the more likely explanation, especially when the sample size for the narrative’s as small as it is. This is a good Wisconsin team. No, they might not be at full strength. But they weren’t at full strength last week, and how much are you going to trust a Northwestern team that couldn’t beat Nebraska or Purdue by double digits?
Finally, let’s talk math. SP+, as was said, gives Liberty a 60% chance to win outright. I don’t have the exact number on the probability Wisconsin covers, but my back of the envelope math suggests it’s somewhere in the 65% region. With that, if you bet each of these individually, with the Badger spread at -110 and the Flame moneyline at +165, you get an eROI of 83% (!). If you bet them as a parlay, at +406, you get an eROI of 97% (!!). Should you believe the true eROI is that high? No. SP+ isn’t perfect. But the math recommends the parlay, especially if you’re comfortable with a 39% chance of profiting, rather than an 81% chance if you play both with an equal unit, or an 89.5% chance if you stagger the unit such that you can profit with one win either way. Since these picks are a long-term endeavor, we’ll take the parlay here.
Pick: Parlay Wisconsin -7.5, Liberty to win (+406). Low confidence.
