Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 1.3% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,828 published picks, not including bets that remain pending, like futures. 1.3% doesn’t sound amazing, but relative to what else you get on the internet?
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks. ESPN’s SP+ is heavily used in making college football picks of all kinds, and FPI is used in making conference championship futures picks.
Our college football plays for the weekend can be found in yesterday’s picks. Today, just one, and it’s on the basketball court.
Purdue vs. North Carolina
Not all low and mid-majors are the same, so when we note how Purdue’s beaten its opponents—Bellarmine, Indiana State, and Wright State—by an average of 32.7 points, while North Carolina’s only beaten its own opponents—Loyola-Maryland, Brown, Charleston—by an average of 11.3 points, we should also note how those opponents compare. How do they compare? Well, on average, Purdue’s opponents would be favored to win by six on a neutral floor over North Carolina’s opponents.
UNC’s got some talent. They can certainly score. But Purdue’s on a different level, and should take advantage of UNC’s weakness on the perimeter to take care of business.
Pick: Purdue to win -275. Medium confidence.
