Editor’s Note: For about two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ NLCS comeback, the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,197 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.3% might not be great, it’s positive over a big sample size. And you can do something with positive.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Bill Connelly’s SP+ is heavily used in making College Football picks.
Baylor @ Texas Tech
Baylor’s disappointed. How much of this is their coronavirus issues is unclear, but 1-4 through five games—even conference ones—was not the expectation.
That said, the Bears have rarely looked outright bad, and their challenge to Iowa State in Ames last week might’ve been their best showing of the year. Craig Williams is out for the year, which is a significant loss (and just sad), but even so…Baylor’s good enough to be favored by more than this against Texas Tech, even on the road.
Pick: Baylor -1.5 (-110). Low confidence.
