Editor’s Note: For about two and a half years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 1.1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,431 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 1.1% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Houston @ Texas
The value isn’t great here, which is why we’re sticking with low confidence, but this is the best we can find today. Basically, Lance McCullers is probably a little underappreciated by the market, which appears to expect him to post an ERA this season higher than any FIP he’s ever posted, judging by this line. The other factor at play is that the market seems to really think highly of Ryan Pressly, who’s likely unavailable after pitching on back-to-back days. It’s fair to think highly of Pressly, but: His value is such that it comes in bursts; the Astros have some options to backfill it; and it only comes out in highly specific situations. In other words, there are plenty of cases to be made for this being a no-play, but if you want a play (and we want a play, for content’s sake and because we’ve had a hard time finding good plays in recent days), this is a play.
Pick: Houston to win -175. Low confidence.
